The plunge in salmon output will be more severe next year, salmon industry forecasts indicate. (Photo: Stock File)

Salmon output to tumble 70 pct in 2010

CHILE
Wednesday, March 04, 2009, 02:00 (GMT + 9)

Salmon industry executives anticipate a critical juncture for Atlantic salmon output in the period 2009-11 as infectious salmon anaemia (ISA) continues to spread throughout domestic farming centres and adversly impact harvests.

Some sector executives expect Chilean salmon production to plunge by 50 per cent this year. Their 2010 and 2011 projections, however, are grimmer with output expected to plummet by 70 per cent.

These alarming predictions are linked to the fact that many companies have stopped farming Atlantic salmon in Chile out of fear their stocks will catch the ISA virus.

Company executives are also awaiting the definition and implementation of management conditions for salmon production.

The Chilean Salmon Industry Association AG (SalmonChile) is looking to submit a preliminary proposal to the government outlining production and sanitary rest dates to be implemented by companies in the 35 productive neighbourhoods defined by the National Fisheries Service (SERNAPESCA).

The document will specify the manner in which companies should operate in these areas in order to fully eradicate the troublesome virus.

According to industry data, the seeding of Atlantic salmon sank 83 per cent in January compared to same month last year. Similarly, fish inventory volume at farming centres dropped a staggering 61 per cent in the first month of the year, compared to January 2008.

It takes Atlantic salmon 18 to 20 months to reach a commercially viable weight of around 4.5kg. This means the fish that enter the water this season will be harvested in mid-2010.

“A strong contraction in inventory will be seen in terms of available harvestable volume in 2009 and especially in 2011,” a top executive exclaimed to the Diario Financiero.

Meanwhile, the industry may recover the output levels registered in 2008 - but only by harvest season 2015, another manager anticipated.

"Atlantic salmon output will fall 70 per cent in the 2010 season, that is, to just above 100,000 tonnes, compared to the 200,000 tonnes of 2009 and the 400,000 reached in 2008,” explained the general manager of Marine Harvest, Alvaro Jimenez.

The executive acknowledged the fall in output “is very bad news socially speaking and from the employment point of view,” but stated “it is good in the sense that Chile's sanitary conditions will likely show significant improvements in the mid-term.”

Despite the effects the salmon farming crisis will have over the next two years, “as of 2011, output could begin to recover" as a result of measures implemented by the industry, opined Salmon Table executive secretary Felipe Sandoval.

For Sandoval, sanitary improvements “will lower production levels in the Atlantic, as there will be less output per concession.”

As far as salmonid exports, the increase in prices is expected to offset the fall in income, exclaimed the general manager of SalmonChile, Rodrigo Infante. Given growing demand, the sector expects to close the year with exports worth USD 1.80 billion, he said.

Sector companies recently quadrupled their salmon inventories due to precautionary early harvesting intended to diminish the virus' impact, it was learned days ago.

Chilean salmon farming industry experts estimate an existing inventory volume of between 30,000 and 40,000 tonnes of salmon, a volume equal to a month of exports.

Related articles:

- Price hikes to compensate for poor output forecast
- ISA virus causes major salmon inventory glut

By Analia Murias
editorial@fis.com
www.fis.com