January-July 2020: IFFO’s analysis on marine ingredient market trends
Wednesday, September 09, 2020, 06:00 (GMT + 9)
A taste of the many statistics and analyses that can be found in the market intelligence reports that IFFO dedicates to its members is reported below. They include an analysis of both the supply and demand sides of the market, with research focusing also on the global trends of animal farming and fish catches, agri-commodities, commodities’ prices and general macro-economic conditions.
Production of marine ingredients: July 2020 yield remains well above the 2011-2019 average for the same month
Above-average landings in Peru were once again the main driver, although the African countries analyzed by IFFO showed historically higher availability of raw material for the month of July.
Year over year, total raw material total in July was more than 40% higher, again mainly thanks to the good results of Peru and African countries, although the Icelandic / North Atlantic area and India also reported better results.
Cumulative total fishmeal production throughout July (including salmon-based meal) rebounded further from the previous year, and was estimated to decline by only 2%, with the largest annual losses reported by India and the Iceland / North Atlantic area.
Total cumulative fish oil production also fell by 4%, with significant declines in Peru, India, Iceland and the United States. However, significant improvements in oil production from African countries continue to be reported, mainly thanks to a better performance from South Africa, but also thanks to additional production of tuna oil in Côte d'Ivoire (production started in 2020).
The Denmark / Norway region is also reporting a clear upturn from 2019.
China: Market demand for fishmeal improved seasonally recently
Since China is by far the main market for marine ingredients, a special focus is devoted to this country with an ad hoc report.
Due to the uncertainty in global markets and the adverse impact of the pandemic, China has accelerated its shift from an export-based model to a model driven by domestic demand, also known as a dual circulation development strategy.
Market demand for fishmeal improved seasonally; more and more fishmeal arrivals are registered, especially from Peru; daily outflows of imported fishmeal are increasing, without causing inflationary pressure, probably due to the expected increase in stocks thanks to ongoing Peruvian shipments to China.
Aquaculture is slowly approaching its off season. The domestic supply of shrimp remains in short supply, while a sharp reduction in shrimp imports from Ecuador is reported. Not surprisingly, prices rose recently, although they remain well below last year's levels due to covid-19 related issues.
Pork imports are at a high level. More and more companies are investing in pig feed as they foresee good profit opportunities in this sector. The demand for pork is not fully met by domestic production and the price of pork is increasing.